Pre-Release Sales Forecast & Investment Analysis: Everdream Village

Date: December 9, 2025 Ticker Focus: VARSAV Game Studios ($VAR)

Executive Summary

Everdream Village (AppID: 3569950) is a "cozy" farming simulation game scheduled for Early Access release on December 12, 2025. The title is a direct sequel and spiritual successor to Everdream Valley (2023).

Our analysis indicates a Neutral/Cautious Momentum Verdict. While the game has shown a healthy acceleration in follower growth and a climbing wishlist rank (Top 500), it enters a highly saturated "cozy farm" market. The game is a significant portfolio addition for co-publisher VARSAV Game Studios S.A. ($VAR).

Projected Launch Peak CCU: 750 – 1,200 (Neutral)
Forecasted Gross Revenue (Year 1): $1.1M – $1.6M (Neutral)
Investment Thesis: High volatility. The title utilizes a "safe" sequel strategy, but the lack of viral breakout indicators suggests it will be a "portfolio sustainer" rather than a "stock-doubling hit."

Game & Company Overview

Game Title: Everdream Village
Genre: Farming Sim / Open World / Colony Sim
Developer: Mooneaters S.A.
Publisher: Untold Tales S.A. & VARSAV Game Studios S.A. ($VAR)
Release Date: December 12, 2025 (Early Access)
Price Assumption: $24.99 (Based on market standards)

Trend & Momentum Analysis

1. Follower Velocity & Hype Freshness

Total Followers: ~6,342 (as of Dec 9, 2025).
Recent Velocity: The follower curve has shifted from linear to slightly exponential. In the last 14 days, the game added ~800 followers (moving from ~5,600 to ~6,342), compared to slower growth periods in September.
Hype Freshness: High. Approximately 20% of the total following was acquired in the last 21 days. This indicates "fresh" interest, which converts to sales at a higher rate than dormant wishlists from early 2025.

2. Event Correlation

August 4-5 Spike: Coincides with the release of the Demo. Followers jumped from ~2,360 to ~2,600 between August 4 and August 6.
November 17 Spike: Coincides with marketing beats. A sharp inflection point is visible, where followers jumped from 5,069 to over 5,100, continuing to rise to 6,342 by December.

3. Wishlist Rank Trajectory

Current Rank: ~428 (Global Top Wishlists).
Trajectory: Bullish. The game has climbed steadily from Rank #1000+ in July to the Top 430 in December. Entering the Top 500 pre-launch is a strong signal for an Indie AA title, ensuring front-page visibility on the "Popular Upcoming" list.

4. Total Wishlist Estimation

Multiplier: Cozy games often enjoy higher "Follower-to-Wishlist" ratios (12x-14x).
Estimate: 6,342 Followers × 13.0 = ~82,446 Wishlists.

Market & Sentiment Analysis

USP Critical Assessment

The Hook: A mix of Animal Crossing aesthetics with Stardew Valley systems, focusing on "village building" rather than just farming.
Critique: The USP is weak. The "Cozy Farm" genre is oversaturated (Fae Farm, Coral Island, Fields of Mistria). The visual identity is competent but generic. The "Sequel Safety" is the main strength—players know what to expect.

Regional Pricing Risk

Blended ASP Risk: High. The predecessor (Everdream Valley) was heavily discounted in LATAM/CIS/Asia. Revenue models must be adjusted downward; a $24.99 US copy may yield a Blended ASP (Average Selling Price) of only ~$10-$12 globally due to publisher strategies in regions like China and Brazil.

Community Sentiment

Hub Activity: Low-to-Moderate. The "Sequel Decay" risk is real. Players of the first game cited "jank" and lack of depth. If the sequel enters Early Access with technical issues, the rating could slip to "Mixed," significantly harming long-tail sales.

Benchmark Comparison

Primary Benchmark: Everdream Valley (Predecessor, Released May 2023)

Peak CCU: 703
Est. Gross Revenue: ~$859k - $1M (Lifetime)
Followers: ~11,000 (Current)

Comparison Logic: Everdream Village has ~55% of the followers Everdream Valley has post-launch, but it is currently pre-launch.

CCU Ratio: The predecessor had a Follower-to-CCU ratio of roughly 15:1. Applying a stricter pre-launch adjusted ratio of 8:1 to Village (6,342 followers) suggests a launch CCU of roughly 750-800.

Sales & CCU Forecast (12-Month)

Key Forecast Assumptions:

Base Price: $24.99 USD.
Blended ASP Factor: 45% (Accounts for regional pricing + Early Access launch discount). Effective Revenue per Unit = ~$11.25.
Sequel Decay: Applied. We assume front-loaded sales with a steeper drop-off than a new IP.

Scenarios

Pessimistic (Bear Case): Game releases with bugs; generic gameplay fails to attract new users.
- Year 1 Revenue: ~$500,000
Neutral (Base Case): Solid Early Access launch. Captures existing fanbase + small organic growth.
- Year 1 Revenue: ~$1,290,000
Optimistic (Bull Case): Viral success on TikTok/Twitch ("Cozy" influencers).
- Year 1 Revenue: ~$2,360,000

Detailed Forecast Table: Neutral Scenario

The following table breaks down the cumulative unit sales and revenue trajectory for the first 12 months.

Timeline	Cumulative Units Sold	Cumulative Gross Revenue (Est.)	Growth Context
Month 1 (Launch)	40,250	~$452,000	Launch Spike: Captures ~35% of Year 1 demand immediately (Wishlist activation).
Month 2	55,000	~$618,000	Post-Launch Tail: Natural drop-off after launch visibility fades.
Month 3	65,500	~$736,000	Stabilization: First major patches/updates release.
Month 6	85,000	~$956,000	Seasonal Sale: Likely 20-25% discount during major Steam events.
Month 9	98,000	~$1,100,000	Organic Growth: Slower, long-tail discovery.
Month 12 (Year 1)	115,000	~$1,290,000	Year 1 Total: Includes Winter Sale boost.

Risk Factors & Catalysts

Risk: Early Access Burnout. The genre demands high content volume. Releasing in EA with a "thin" gameplay loop will result in "Wait for 1.0" reviews, stalling cash flow.
Risk: Release Window. December 12 is perilously close to the Steam Winter Sale. The game risks getting buried by AAA discounts within 10 days of launch.
Catalyst: Console Port. The predecessor had a console release. Revenue upside exists in 2026/2027 for Switch/PS5 versions, which are not included in these PC-specific numbers.

Investment Takeaways ($VAR)

Scale Comparison:
- VARSAV ($VAR): This is a Mid-Tier portfolio release. With Everdream Valley generating ~$1M lifetime, a sequel doing $1.2M is positive but likely already priced in by the market.
ROI Analysis:
- Est. Budget: $600k - $800k (Polish labor costs, asset reuse).
- Verdict: Neutral Net Revenue ($720k publisher share) suggests a Break-even to slight profit in Year 1. Significant ROI relies on long-tail sales in Years 2-3.
Final Verdict: Hold/Watch. The current momentum (Rank 428) is good but not great. The game lacks the "explosive" wishlist velocity seen in breakout hits (usually Top 100 rank). Expect a stable launch that validates the company's baseline but does not trigger a massive repricing event.